What’s Not Going to Change in the Next 10 Years?
One of my favorite quotes related to business since I picked up my first Harvey Mackay book when I was twelve is from Jeff Bezos.
“I very frequently get the question: ‘What’s going to change in the next 10 years?’ And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?’ And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two — because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. ... [I]n our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It’s impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, ‘Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,’ [or] ‘I love Amazon; I just wish you’d deliver a little more slowly.’ Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.”
First off this is a great example of another of my favorite quotes and possibly favorite business icon.
“Invert, always invert. ”
Not only does Jeff Bezos turn the question around, but he then comes up with a framework you can use to determine what to focus on. What doesn’t change? What do people always want. That is what you can spend all your money and time on because it will be rewarded.
What Won’t Change in the Next 10 Years?
So what won’t change in the next 10 years? What can you invest in and be sure the time and money wasn’t wasted? Here’s a few things people will still want a decade from now:
Lower prices
Faster delivery
More money
Easier sign up
More options, but an easy decision
Higher status
Less pain
Less anxiety
Better relationships
Better sleep
An earlier retirement
Their health, a six pack
A purpose
A community to belong to
Shelter
An opportunity to grow
A better life for their kids
A creative outlet
Security
A faster, more unique car than their neighbor
Vacations
A career for their children
Less time doing chores
Distraction
Novelty
Scarcity
A dopamine button (gaming, drugs, etc.)
Hope
I think the above is too general to be useful. But if you’re running or starting a business think about the specific industry you are in and pull out what your customers will always value. Then double down on those elements.
Twitter is a simple social media site based on quick communication. But status is important, so you can charge for a blue or gold checkmark.
Airbnb knows people want to go on vacations and make money.
Hermes builds scarcity into everything they do.
Vanguard knows 0.05% is better than 0.07%.
Harvard isn’t in the education business, it’s in the status, relationship, hope and scarcity business.
Calm built an amazing app on reducing stress and anxiety.
Costco is an empire built on lower prices and novelty.
Facebook allowed you to build their business on the back of your community.
Any other ideas on what won’t change? Send me a note and we’ll continue to build the list.